Bullish Sentiment on the Rise: Is It Time to Get Worried ... or Get on Board?
Posted Apr 27, 2010 08:15am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing
Related: ^DJI, ^GSPC, SPY, DIA, QQQQ, SCHW, ^IXIC
Sentiment is always tricky to measure - and something of a Rorschach test - but with the Dow up 71% from its March 2008 lows, the inevitable has started to happen: Bullish sentiment is rising.
Anecdotally, at least, the migration from investor "disbelief" in the rally to "acceptance" (if not "embrace") can be seen in a number of recent indicators, including:
* -- Newsweek's "America's Back" headline.
* -- An "S&P 3000 by 2020" prediction on Tech Ticker.
* -- A WSJ story about rising bullishness among technicians, featuring a prediction from Lowry's Paul Desmond's that "we could easily be getting into a speculative advance here, a real momentum move."
* -- A modicum of towel-tossing by noted bears such as Jeremy Grantham of GMO. In January, Grantham said the S&P was fairly valued at 850. In his most recent quarterly letter, the famed investor writes "the line of least resistance is a market move in the next 18 months or so back to the old highs, say, 1500 to 1600 on the S&P, accompanied by an equivalent gain in most risk measures, followed once again by a very dangerous break."
* -- A Bloomberg story about stocks being the cheapest since 1990, excluding the 2009 market trough.
* -- Rising optimism among private sector trade groups surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics, as detailed here.
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Bullish Sentiment on the Rise: Is It Time to Get Worried ... or Get on Board?
I flirt with stocks in my trading! I am not here for any serious relationship! I just look at the prices #ProfitFromPrices. I have built some filters on various price comparisons. I check the selected stocks on Tradingview charts. Then I flirt for a few days if some stock looks attractive, tempting (should I say sexy?) Who cares about the company name, news or fundamentals? This is flirting, not a relationship ;) Trading activity: https://goo.gl/ne13pQ
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What is wrong with my trading? The other me who keeps screaming inside me that the market is too risky. It is about to crash!!! It is actually killing me instead.
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Can't be more accurate timing... This was published on 27 of April and the very next day brought the begining of the downturn.
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